Denmark-based Saxo Bank has published its 10 outrageous financial predictions for 2022.
Continuing almost two decades of tradition, experts at the bank have made the predictions as ‘consensus-smashing forecasts’ that would ‘send shockwaves through the markets’ – but only if they come to pass.
While the group of analysts and finance fundis’ predictions are historically “speculative, but made on the basis of sound economic principles”, the widely unexpected spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 called for a change in tack, with the wild calls for 2021 taking a more ‘futurist’ approach.
These included predictions like Amazon ‘buying’ Cyprus by moving its headquarters there and using its investments to influence tax laws and policies. This did not happen – although Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos did go to space.
Other 2021 predictions also proved to be a bit beyond the reach of reality: silver prices didn’t spike as expected, although commodity prices did prove to be a saving grace for many investors as Covid-19 waves waned and pushed up demand.
Blockchain technology didn’t emerge as the fake-news killer it was hoped to be. Instead, fake news and misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines ran rampant throughout the year, while the blockchain went in a completely different direction: confusing the general public with the non-fungible token (NFT) trend.
One pretty spot-on 2021 prediction was the rise of universal basic income grants, and how a shift in job trends, technology, and work-from-home policies would ‘decimate’ big cities.
While global cities are far from being ‘decimated’, they have come under immense pressure due to the aspects listed in the prediction – including South African cities, where office space sits empty and major companies are making a more permanent shift to home-office-hybrid work patterns.
A disruptive 2022
For its 2022 predictions, Saxo analysts are still taking a futurist route, but are also feeding off the sense of revolution that has filtered through much of 2021.
“As culture wars rage across the world, it’s no longer a question of if we get a socioeconomic revolution, but a question of when and how,” it said. “There is a theme of revolution and disruption, and we’ve got exciting calls for 2022 – not all of them you will like.”
“We must emphasise our annual caveat, that these Outrageous Predictions should not be seen as our official view on the market and politics. This year, more than ever, we’re trying to provoke you and ourselves to think outside the box and to engage in discussing the important topics we raise. Let the fun, and the future, begin.”
A full write-up of the predictions can be found on Saxo Bank’s website.
The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check
Policymakers kick climate targets down the road and support fossil fuel investment to fight inflation and the risk of social unrest while rethinking the path to a low-carbon future.
Facebook faceplants on youth exodus
The young abandon Facebook’s platforms in protest against their mining of personal information for profit; the attempt by Facebook parent Meta to reel them back in with the Metaverse stumbles.
The US mid-term election brings a constitutional crisis
The US mid-term election sees a stand-off over the certification of close Senate and/or House election results, leading to a scenario where the 118th Congress is unable to sit on schedule in early 2023.
US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral
By the fourth quarter of 2022, US CPI inflation reaches an annualized 15% as companies bid up wages in an effort to find willing and qualified workers, triggering a wage-price spiral unlike anything seen since the 1970s.
EU superfund for climate, energy and defence announced – to be funded by private pensions
To defend against the rise of populism, deepen the commitment to slowing climate change, and defend its borders as the US security umbrella recedes, the EU launches a bold $3 trillion Superfund to be funded by pension allocations rather than new taxes.
Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy
Mimicking the meme stock Reddit Army tactics of 2020-21, a group of women traders launch a coordinated assault on companies with weak records on gender equality, leading to huge swings in equity prices for targeted companies.
India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member
The world’s geopolitical alliances will lurch into a phase of drastic realignment as we have an ugly cocktail of new deglobalising geopolitics and much higher energy prices.
Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform
Musicians are ready for change as the current music streaming paradigm means that labels and streaming platforms capture 75-95% of revenue paid for listening to streamed music. In 2022, new blockchain-based technology will help them grab back their fair share of industry revenues.
New hypersonic tech drives space race and a new cold war
The latest hypersonic missile tests are driving a widening sense of insecurity as this tech renders legacy conventional and even nuclear military hardware obsolete. In 2022 a massive hypersonic arms race develops among major militaries as no country wants to feel left behind.
Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years
Young forever, or for at least a lot longer. In 2022, a key breakthrough in biomedicine brings the prospect of extending productive adulthood and the average life expectancy by up to 25 years, prompting projected ethical, environmental and fiscal crises of epic proportions.
Read: The biggest economic risks for 2022
